Prices sold off during the early morning trading hours, only to reverse and start trending higher just after the regular session opening. Prices were severely oversold on the daily chart, so a rally was certainly due and needed. It is possible that this will be a range day, but prices have broken higher out of the top of the range. We will have to wait and see if prices can sustain the breakout, but it has failed to take off so far.

At the moment there are two competing patterns. A range pattern and a two-tiered spike and channel. Let prices prove the channel is play and not the range before getting too eager to get long at the highs. Again, the path of least resistance should be to the high side with the oversold situation we were in, but prices can often stay oversold or overbought much longer than you would expect, so you cannot trade on that thought alone. The price action needs to prove it out first.

For now, the trend and bias are both up, but that could change many times before the trading day is over.

Mack’s 2000 Tick ES Chart for 02-28-2025.
Mack’s Daily Chart with the Envelope Bands/Strategy.

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