Prices have been mostly sideways during the overnight session but dropped below the overnight lows for a bit after the 8:30 AM CST regular session opening. While prices failed on the breakout, they are now testing the range support again, so we will have to see if the range lows will now act as resistance or once again become support before we will know more about how today my play out overall.
For the moment, I would describe this day as mixed to slightly down, but that could change as the day progresses. There has been a very bearish tilt to the market for a few weeks now, but the path of least resistance may be to the upside since the market has been so oversold. I think we are overdue for a rally of some type, but we all know what happens when we think and don’t follow the price action, so we will have to let it play out before we know for certain.
For now, I would expect more mixed trading and for prices to attempt to push back into the range again. If the range remains in play, prices will likely trend up and down throughout the day. If and when prices test the high of the range, look for the same things we are talking about now. Will the highs hold as resistance or will prices breakout and that price level become support. Look to short the highs unless we get support, and if we do get support, prices could move higher before the day is over. The key is to follow the price action and allow it to show you what it wants to do, and you just react to it.
Mack’s Mid-Morning ES Chart for 04-01-2025.
Mack’s Daily Chart with the Envelope Bands/Strategy.